Expect points aplenty in this series between two of the NBA’s
highest-scoring teams when Portland and Houston face off in the final
series-opening game of the weekend on Sunday night. Houston, the fourth seed in
the West, is a 5.5-point
favorite for Game 1 against the No. 5 Blazers.
If you like 3-point shooting, this is the series for you. The Rockets and
Blazers are one and three, respectively, in 3-point attempts per game and both
try to bombard you with outside attempts. The Rockets shooting the most threes
in the NBA but they make 35.6 percent of them, which is good for 17th in the
NBA. The Blazers’ attempts are much more efficient, making the league’s ninth
best percentage at 37.2 percent.
Both teams won 54 games, and their point differentials are separated by a
smaller margin (Houston edges Portland +4.7 to +4) than those of the other seven
series. Both teams also have two All-Stars (the Rockets’ James Harden and Dwight
Howard vs. the Blazers’ LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard), top-five
offenses, top-10 paces of play and top-three units in three-pointers attempted.
The average score of their four regular-season games was 116-110 Houston, with
the Rockets taking the series 3-1 thanks to a dramatic overtime victory in
March.
After sitting out for two weeks and missing eight games with a strained
left ankle, Howard says he’s fully recovered and ready to re-establish himself
in the middle at both ends of the floor. If that’s true, Howard is the one who
tips the scales. Wesley Matthews will have his hands full trying to stop Harden
from scoring by the dozens. The bearded one dropped 41 and 33 on Portland
already this season. Harden also led the NBA this season with 6.9 fast-break
points per game. Houston is one of two teams (the other was Minnesota) with wins
over the top two seeds in each conference (Indiana, Miami, Oklahoma City and San
Antonio).
The Rockets turned the ball over 16.3 times per 100 possessions, the second
highest rate in the league and the highest among playoff teams. The Blazers rank
No. 3 in turnover percentage and No. 30 in opponent turnover percentage, meaning
they protect the ball well on offense and play very conservatively on defense.
The Rockets, on the other hand, rank No. 29 in turnover percentage and No. 28 in
opponent turnover percentage, meaning they can be quite careless on offense
while not really generating many free possessions on the other end.
Portland allowed 105.7 points per 100 possessions before the All-Star break
(23rd in the league) and 103.0 after it (10th). No team improved more
defensively after the break. Only 20.9 percent of their opponents shots were
3-pointers, the lowest opponent rate in the league.
Howard averaged 25.5 points per game against the Blazers, his highest mark
against Western Conference opponents. Terrence Jones was a minus-45 in 49
minutes. No other Rocket had a negative plus-minus against the Blazers. The
Blazers’ starting lineup was a plus-36 in 72 minutes against the Rockets. All
other Portland lineups were a minus-62 in 125 minutes.
WagerWeb
trends: Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U.
loss. Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Rockets are 1-4 ATS in
their last 5 vs. Western Conference. Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after
scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 7-0 in the last 7
meetings. Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Houston. Underdog is 11-5-1 ATS
in the last 17 meetings. Trail Blazers are 3-8-1 ATS in the last 12
meetings.
No comments:
Post a Comment